Bali's 7 Million Foreign Tourist Target for 2026 Uncertain, Only 5.2 Million Arrived Jan-Sep

I Gusti Ngurah Rai Suryawijaya, chairman of the Badung chapter of Indonesia's Hotel and Restaurant Association (PHRI), expressed skepticism that Bali will reach its target of 7 million foreign tourist arrivals by the end of 2026. He cited global uncertainty and the large number of visitors still needed in the final quarter as key challenges.

According to Bali's Tourism Office, foreign tourist arrivals from January to September 2026 reached 5.2 million. Rai estimated the full-year total would likely land between 6.8 and 7 million, noting that global geopolitical conditions—including the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States—are affecting the global economy and travel patterns.

"My estimate is between 6.8 million and a maximum of 7 million. The global geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and this is affecting both geopolitics and the global economy," Rai said on Friday, October 9.

With 5.2 million arrivals recorded through September, Bali needs about 1.8 million more visitors in the last three months of the year to hit the 7 million target, Rai said. He expressed hope that no major obstacles would arise, particularly regarding international flights. New routes from China, Taiwan, and Melbourne, Australia, along with an increase in direct Moscow-Bali flights to four times daily, could help support visitor growth.

Still, Rai said the final three months—October, November, and December—will be decisive. Based on past patterns, visitor numbers typically dip in November before rising again in December, driven by the Christmas and New Year holiday period.

To help reach the target, Rai is urging the government to step up international market promotion and expand direct flight availability, whether through new routes or increased flight frequency. He also stressed the need for continued improvements to infrastructure, security, environmental cleanliness, and traffic congestion management to preserve Bali's image as a tourist destination.

Meanwhile, Bali Tourism Office head I Wayan Sumarajaya said the provincial government is coordinating with district and city governments as well as tourism industry players to maintain service quality for visitors. Promotion efforts involve industry stakeholders both directly and through digital channels, including promotional video production. The government is also pushing development of sport tourism, which has seen growing interest among travelers.